The so-called next generation video format is long since over, but the ultimate winner may not be Blu-ray. Depending on how one chooses to view the outcome, providers of digital cable and/or broadband services might be the immediate winners, and companies that offer downloadable content on demand may be the long-term beneficiaries of the conflict. The big question is: Will consumers win in the end?
Understanding The Recent Past
An old expression says that nobody can know where they are going unless they know where they have been. That being said, it is worth taking a step back in time to briefly revisit the conflict between HD-DVD and Blu-ray. Unlike the DVD standard, which offered a viable alternative to VHS and Laserdisc, neither HD-DVD nor Blu-Ray were able to gain much traction with consumers. Reasons for this failure to gain wide market acceptance vary depending on who one chooses to ask, but many compare it to the fight between VHS and Betamax. There is, however, a key difference: consumers considering VHS vs. Betamax did not have a third alternative, but many people had already purchased DVD players prior to the onset of the HD-DVD/Blu-ray conflict.
In short, consumers knew all to well what happens to early adopters who choose to back the wrong standard. Such early adopters pay a lot of money for a device that will retail for under $100 at Walmart in a few years and will be left with a handful of titles and few prospects for new releases. Believe it or not, other eyes were on this conflict too, and had taken the same notes. They planned to offer a solution that might be more attractive to consumers.
Enter the Digital Cable Providers
The transition to digital cable began long before the HD-DVD/Blu-ray conflict erupted, but nearly all digital cable providers came up with a very similar concept that we now know as on demand. On demand is a generic term for content streamed to consumers set top boxes (STBs) in a way that allows consumers to pick and choose what they want. Such a feat was not possible with analog networks, though encrypted pay-per-view (PPV) channels were probably something of a forefather of the concept of on demand programming. Allowing customers to choose what they want has proven immensely popular, and the proof can clearly be seen in the advanced streaming features in Verizon’s FiOS and A&T’s U-verse services; on-demand programming can be watched whenever one wants, paused, and often transferred and moved to another compatible STB within the house.
The ability to pause/rewind and transfer Blu-ray discs is certainly nothing new, but it is far less convenient than what STBs have to offer. Furthermore, STBs the combine with digital cable services to stream and transfer data digitally do not run the risk of damaging discs since there are no discs involved. Once a Blu-ray or DVD disc is scratched, it is usually nothing more than an expensive coaster. On the other hand, special content available only on Blu-ray discs has kept some consumers interested.
Digital Cable Providers Were Not the Only Organizations With a Solution…
In October 2005, Apple announced to the world that their already successful iTunes store was ready to serve more than just music; They were going to be using the Internet to transmit legally purchased movies and television shows. While the iTunes store certainly took a while to catch on with media content owners and customers, it has made amazing strides since. There was a problem, however: not everyone had a spare computer to connect to their television, or the interest in sitting in front of a monitor to watch movies.
This resulted in the Apple TV, a comparatively affordable solution to this dilemma. Unfortunately, the Apple TV has not necessarily gained the kind of traction that industry analysts would like. Nevertheless, the H.264 encoding/decoding that Apple pushed heavily via iTunes and general concept behind the Apple TV has caused a great number of rivals to bring similar products to the market, further blurring the once-distinct boundaries between PCs and television/home entertainment centers. There are no ‘killer’ streaming boxes that dominate the market at the moment, and the entire field streaming content boxes is ripe for the taking if only a company out there can take Apple’s ease-of-use and combine it with the ability to shop at multiple stores and play virtually all formats at acceptable frame rates.
It is worth noting that special features are no longer exclusive to Blu-ray discs, as the latest version of Apple’s iTunes has added this ability to digital downloads. Whether this trend will become common throughout the entire industry is a subject of much debate, but it seems as if it is a possibility. The downside to streaming content boxes is that virtually all of the major broadband providers are also in the business of supplying digital cable television services. Whether or not these two distinct delivery methods will meld, co-exist, or be at each other’s throats until one becomes nothing but a memory is another subject of much debate. It would certainly seem that digital cable providers that use their own high-speed broadband networks for the transmission of television signals have a definite leg-up in this brewing contest.
What About Video Rentals?
Blockbuster was once the undisputed king of video rentals, and it seemed all but an inevitability that the company would adopt whichever format emerged victorious from the HD-DVD/Blu-ray conflict. While Blockbuster did indeed opt for Blu-Ray, it hedged its bets and decided to go toe-to-toe with arch-rival Netflix. The two companies now offer competing streaming video services, and that would seem to be a fair indication as to which way the wind is blowing.
Blu-ray R.I.P. or Just Getting Started?
It seems that Blu-ray will likely go down in history as a technology that ‘won the battle but lost the war.’ While Blu-ray certainly outlasted HD-DVD, the protracted duration of the conflict gave time for the birth of mainstream digital media downloads and DVR based on demand features, both of which seem to have a lot to offer compared to Blu-ray. Do not count Blu-ray out yet, but it is probably well past time for holding one’s breath. Besides, why would anyone hold their breath when they could download or stream the latest releases without ever leaving their home?
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For most DVD’s are “good enough”. Blu-Ray while the picture is very clear it really doesn’t help that most new movies are just bad recreations of old movies and television series. I found with Blu-Ray that people I at one time considered attractive were now onscreen with pock marks, makeup lines,and wrinkles.Do I really want to see closeups of pimples and pores? I know of no person in my local friends that even own a Blu-Ray player. They all have On Demand and that is good enough for them. Kinda how Ipod compressed music is “good enough” to forgo buying a cd.